Faced with increasing climate risks and disasters, Tunisia continues to adopt a predominantly reactive management approach, despite the existence of a National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (NDRR) with a time horizon of 2030.
This strategy, developed by the Tunisian government with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), this strategy, is accompanied by a structuring action plan for the next decade.
Planned investments and required funding
Tunisian journalist Meriem Khadhraoui writes about this in the Tunisian news agency Tap, noting that it is based on substantial infrastructure investments, which must be accompanied by sustainable and inclusive plans
Its implementation requires an estimated total budget of 548.7 million dinars (£200.5 million). An initial assessment conducted in 2022/2023 revealed a low level of progress. In fact, “there is a significant difference between what was planned and what has actually been implemented”, denounced Kamel Tounsi, senior expert in climate change adaptation, in a statement to TAP. The National Climate Change Response Strategy contained an investment plan of approximately 410.4 million dinars (£240.4 million) to strengthen the resilience of critical infrastructure and ensure the continuity of essential public services, such as water, energy and healthcare. At the same time, the strategy allocated a budget of approximately 149.5 million dinars (£100.5 million) to the protection of vulnerable populations and the safeguard of cultural heritage. Finally, the strategy also aimed to achieve 100% early warning coverage by 2025 through the creation of a National Multi-Risk Early Warning System, with a budget of $6.03 million.
Economic losses and climate vulnerability
In line with the UN Sendai Framework, the strategy addresses the significant economic losses suffered by Tunisia, estimated at over 2.16 billion Tunisian dinars (based on an average exchange rate of 1 US dollar = 2.88 Tunisian dinars) over the last three decades.
While droughts accounted for 54% of disasters recorded between 1957 and 2018, floods remain the most costly, responsible for around 60% of economic losses and the highest number of casualties. According to the World Bank, Tunisia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, with increasingly severe impacts expected due to rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall, water scarcity and sea level rise.
Despite this strategic planning framework and the definition of national priorities, the implementation of planned programmes and projects remains behind schedule. In fact, according to Tounsi, the only major disaster risk reduction (DRR) programme currently implemented at the national level is the one carried forward by the Ministry of Finance and other national partners, with $100 million in funding from the World Bank and the French Development Agency.
Technical, financial and international constraints
Furthermore, ‘the implementation of this strategy is particularly complex,’ acknowledges the expert, highlighting both technical and financial difficulties. ‘Truly strengthening the resilience of ecosystems and societies requires colossal investments, much of which must be mobilised at the international level,’ he explains. However, the current context is not conducive to mobilising external funding. “Financial contributions are declining, both in the form of grants and loans. Furthermore, “The country has not invested enough in developing effective climate diplomacy and advocacy, and this has clearly penalised us,” says Tounsi.
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