Global warming is a looming threat to the Earth, but instead of decreasing, the alarm bells increase. In Arctic the greenhouse gases, which have been frozen below the soil for centuries, have already begun to escape.
The release of methane and carbon dioxide from thawing permafrost will accelerate global warming and add up to $70tn (£54tn) to the world’s climate bill. A new study shows what could happen.
The authors published the results in the Tuesday column of the journal Nature Communications, focusing on the economic impact of permafrost fusion.
Permafrost melting is the main concern. Greenhouse gases have already begun to escape at the current level of one degrees Celsius of global heating. On the current trajectory of at least 3C of warming by the end of the century, melting permafrost expected to discharge up to 280 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and 3 gigatonnes of methane, which has a climate effect that is 10 to 20 times stronger than CO2.
This would increase the global climate-driven impacts by $70tn between now and 2300 with serious damage to free naval circulation and access to minerals.
It would also add to global inequality, especially for countries in warmer poorer regions, which are most vulnerable to a rise in temperatures.
Dmitry Yumashev, senior research associate of the Lancaster University, said: «It’s disheartening that we have this in front of us. Even at 1.5C to 2C, there are impacts and costs due to thawing permafrost. However, they are considerably lower for these scenarios compared to business as usual. We have the technology and policy instruments to limit the warming but we are not moving fast enough». Yumashev also adds: «Previous estimates suggested these Arctic tipping points could add more than 10% to climate costs. Some feared the methane alone could prove catastrophic but the new figures show CO2 remains the greatest concern».
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