Global warming will exceed the 1.5 degree limit from pre-industrial levels in just over 20 years, in 2040, if we continue to consume fossil fuels as it is doing now. An issue not to be underestimated that would be contained in a draft of the IPCC report, the UN Center for Climate Studies, according to what is leaked by the BBC. The study is under discussion from 1 to 5 October in Incheon, South Korea and will be published on Monday 8 October.
Keeping climate change within 1.5 degrees is the most ambitious goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, while the minimum target is to stay within 2 degrees. It must be said that even today the average temperatures rose by 1 degree compared to pre-industrial levels. Just three years ago, governments had signed the Paris Agreement asking the IPCC to write a report about the impacts of heating at +1.5 degrees and on the relative levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The aim was to provide scientific support for climate change policies.
Eighty-six researchers from 39 countries (39% women) examined about 6,000 scientific studies on the feasibility, impacts and costs of remaining within the 1.5 degree threshold. Researchers’ evaluations were in turn submitted to other scientists, receiving over 40,000 comments. The final result will be a 15-page document for political authorities around the world.