Suzanne Goldenberg, John Vidal and Lenore Taylor from The Guardian
Nearly 200 governments honing in on a deal to fight climate change have set lofty aspirations for protecting vulnerable countries from rising seas, but delegates said there were still gaps in the latest draft of an agreement.
After more than 20 years of negotiations, including eight days of talks in a conference hall outside Paris, the next 48 hours are seen as the crunch time in reaching a deal to avoid a dangerous rise in temperatures.
With the release of the latest draft agreement by the French hosts on Wednesday afternoon, governments were expected to meet late into the night to try to strike a deal before the scheduled end of talks on Friday.
The latest draft text recognised a key demand of more than 100 countries to limit warming to 1.5C above industrial levels, which scientists think will assure a better chance of survival for low-lying countries.
After years of fierce argument, pitting wealthy against less wealthy countries, negotiators and campaigners described a spirit of cooperation and willingness to tackle climate change in Paris – symbolised on Wednesday by a US pledge of $860m (£566m) in climate aid to poorer countries, a doubling of its existing commitments.
However, the rising economies of China, India, Brazil and South Africa were noted holdouts against the 1.5C goal. Todd Stern, the US State Department envoy, told negotiators: “There are some countries who seek a more minimalist outcome. We need a figure of 1.5C.”
Anote Tong, the president of the low-lying Pacific island state of Kiribati, said he remained upbeat. “I’ve always said we need to come away from Paris with a deal that would ensure the survival of people. Nobody left behind – that’s the mission all along,” Tong told the Guardian. “This is quite a long way from where we started. It’s coming together.”
But the action plans submitted so far by 186 countries were still likely to result in a temperature rise of close to 3C. The 29-page text, down from a 43-page version on Saturday, lacked specifics on how to ratchet up emissions cuts among developed nations and channel more climate finance to developing countries.
The also US won a key victory when countries’ climate plans – known as INDCs in the UN jargon – were taken out from the main body of the text, something EU officials had previously said was a red line.
Miguel Arias Cañete, the EU energy commissioner, acknowledged the gaps. “The text is not bold enough as it stands,” he said. “We will work to improve it. We invite other countries to join us.”
The European Union said the removal from the text of any reference to emissions from shipping and aviation betrayed “unacceptable levels of low ambition”. Australia complained about a “lack of balance” and Russia advised the only way forward was to re-negotiate the document line by line.
Trinidad and Tobago’s delegate warned the Paris agreement would be “seriously flawed” if it did not stick to an ambitious 1.5C target to limiting warming. Barbados offered even stronger language, warning: “We will not sign off any agreement that represents a certain extinction of our people.”
South Africa said the text was a significant departure and dilution from principles that have guided the talks in the past.
Helen Szoke, the chief executive of Oxfam Australia, said: “There is still a long way to go: this is crunch time. The chance to set new funding targets from when the Paris deal comes into force in 2020 is still very much on the table and needs to stay there if developing countries are to have any hope of more support in the years ahead.”
She said countries needed to improve emissions reductions within the next five years to have any chance of limiting dangerous warming.
There was nothing in the current draft that would stop countries adopting the 1.5C goal, said Mary Robinson, the former Irish president and a campaigner for climate justice.
Despite this, the deal remains in a state of limbo: high hopes, but very little prospect of getting there unless governments agree to take tough decisions in the next few years.
“There is still a lot of work to do, but the good options are still in there,” Robinson said. “We can get a very good robust climate agreement if they make the right choices.”
Jennifer Morgan, the global director of the climate programme at the World Resources Institute, a US-based thinktank, said: “All the elements for a strong and equitable agreement are still in the latest, shorter draft. There is clearly an immense amount of work to be done here in Paris, but things are starting to come together.”
Youth climate activists and green campaigners at the talks staged a sit-in on Wednesday afternoon after the draft text was published. They clapped and chanted “we are unstoppable! Another world is possible” and held placards saying “justice, just transition” and “ambition: fair shares for 1.5C”.
Friends of the Earth International, which took part in the protest, said the current draft failed communities on the frontline of climate change.
However, environmental NGOs and other observers were broadly positive about the draft, although they reiterated that key issues still had to be addressed.
Neil Thorns, the director of advocacy at the Catholic aid agency Cafod, said: “A temperature limit of 1.5C is being put on the table, but it doesn’t mean anything until we get a clear plan on how the world would achieve it.”
Celine Herweijer, a partner at PwC, said there was progress but added: “As to be expected, the more contentious issue of finance, loss and damage, differentiation, ambition and the long term goal of 1.5C-2C all still need to be agreed.”
Unlike earlier climate negotiations, there was a strong concerted push from the US, Europe and some of the world’s least wealthy countries to try to strike a deal.
Earlier on Wednesday, John Kerry, the US secretary of state, made a passionate appeal to countries to rally around a climate agreement, sweetening the deal with an offer to double existing levels of aid to countries on the frontline of climate change.
The White House said the US would deepen its commitment to help low-lying and less wealthy countries already threatened by rising seas and powerful storms.
“We need to get the job done,’’ Kerry said in a hardhitting speech to the Paris meeting. “This moment demands we do not leave Paris without a durable, ambitious climate agreement.”
As Barack Obama worked the phones from Washington, calling the leaders of India and Brazil, Kerry praised countries moving towards renewable energy and proffered additional financial assistance to nations already living with the impact of climate change.
“There are countries we know for which climate change is an existential threat today,” Kerry said. “We have a moral responsibility today to adapt and prepare for those impacts.”
He said the US would double the existing $430m budget for adaptation by 2020 and that the funds would come in addition to $3bn the US pledged earlier to the Green Climate Fund, which will focus more on helping countries move to green energy and cut emissions.
Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said that a new draft would be published on Thursday afternoon, ahead of a “Paris Outcome” final agreement on Friday.
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